Dan Jones and the "SBU Dossier" on Manafort

In late March or early April 2017, as Crossfire Hurricane was metastasizing into the Mueller inquisition, Democrat operative and Fusion GPS patron and client Dan Jones gave a “write up on Manafort” to the FBI, which, according to Strzok, appeared to be similar to a “20 page single spaced intel report cited similarly to but better than [Steele’s]” that had been seen by CBS News. Both the “focus on Manafort” and “links to Ukraine” presage the most important priorities of the Mueller investigation. This important document - and even its existence - has been rigorously concealed by both Mueller investigation and FBI.

Despite the concealment, can we deduce anything about the provenance of the “write up on Manafort” provided by Dan Jones to FBI and any further details? With a little detective work, I think we can. We know: (1) that Dan Jones and his TDIP (The Democracy Integrity Project) were important customers of Christopher Steele from 2017-2020 and were passing messages from Steele to Mark Warner of Senate Intelligence Committee as early as mid-March 2017; and (2) that Steele, in his September 2017 “de-briefing”, had described a lengthy dossier on Manafort originating from Ukrainian SBU, which had been used by his new “up-and-coming” Primary Sub-Source. I think that we can deduce that the document provided by Dan Jones to the FBI which “was written by someone in intel or with intel training” and which “had lots of links to Ukraine” derived from the Ukrainian SBU report on Manafort subsequently described by Steele. I’ll review the evidence below.

Connection of Dan Jones and “Democracy Integrity” to Steele

Nunes Report

First, from the March 2018 Nunes Report, we know that Dan Jones had told FBI on March 28, 2017 that his organization had “secured the services of Steele” and had offered to provide this and other holdings to the FBI:

Texts

Second, texts between Dan Jones and Adam Waldman (link) and between Waldman and Mark Warner (link) demonstrate that Steele and Jones were in close contact in mid-March 2017, with Steele using Jones as a go-between to Waldman and on to SSCI Ranking Member Warner. On March 15, 2017, Dan Jones contacted Adam Waldman saying that Chris [Steele] had asked Jones to connect with Waldman: Daily Caller, March 13, 2018 (times are in UTC):

A follow-up text from Jones to Waldman in the late evening (11:14 PM) of March 16 confirmed that the meeting had taken place. Separately published texts between Waldman and Warner [Fox News, Feb 2018, pdf] show that Waldman had responded almost instanteously to Jones’ text by texting Warner to say that “Chris Steele asked me to call you”.

Most commentary on the Waldman-Warner texts has presumed that Waldman had been in direct contact with Steele. This is possible, but it is equally possible that Waldman was somewhat over-egging an indirect contact with Steele through Dan Jones.

A couple of days later, Jones proudly told Waldman that a contemporary Reuters article on ownership of Trump-branded Florida condos by Russian nationals had been based on work by Jones and his associates (though described in the article as a “Reuters” investigation.) Waldman confirmed back to Jones that he had mentioned Jones to Warner, as requested, saying that Warner had “brought up [Jones’] organization so it was natural.¹

TDIP Tax Records

Thirdly, TDIP tax records Integrity Project) showed that they paid Walsingham (Steele’s then current organization) over $2 million in next four years, starting with $252K in 2017. (Followed by $980K in 2018, $172K in 2019 and $520K in 2020: 2017-2019. Over the same four years, TDIP also paid Fusion GPS (aka Bean LLC) almost $6 million ($5,912,000).²

The tax records list TDIP’s top five vendors (over $100,000) in purchases. Other than Steele/Walsingham and Fusion GPS, the only other such 2017 TDIP vendors were Istok Associates (Neil Barnett) and Edward Austin Ltd (EdBaumgartner), listed in the TDIP 2017 tax form as receiving $149,544 and $122,515 respectively.

The Steele De-Briefing, Sept 2017

In September 2017, Steele was interviewed by the FBI in London by SIA Brian Auten and an SSA (most likely Amy Anderson). The 302 from this interview was in the October 2020 Mueller FOIA drop but was totally redacted except for the first introductory paragraph (only partly redaced.) An almost totally unredacted version of the 302 became available from John Solomon on January 19, 2021³ on the last day of the Trump presidency. It, together with the highly curated and redacted 21 pages of Strzok Lync messages, was the entire meagre delivery of the foot-and-a-half of documents promised by Trump and Solomon. Meagre, but still interesting.

The closing pages of the 302 report contain three paragraphs about “reporting on Manafort” that Steele said he had received from his "other, newly up and coming" "agent network". Steele’s account of this reporting (or at least Auten’s rendering in the 302 is not entirely clear.

In his second paragraph on the topic, Steele said that two memos on Manafort were received by his new PSS (primary subsource), that the new PSS “understands” that the FBI had received a “bigger memo on Manafort based on access to Manafort’s SBU (Ukraine) file” and that the Ukrainian SBU information “talks about how Manafort has always been a Russian agent, about how he’s always been with the FSB and how he’s been run by named Russian case officers”:

The “bigger memo on Manafort” based on “information” from the Ukrainian SBU, supposedly in FBI possession, sure sounds similar to or related to the document described in the Strzok Lync messages of April 26, 2017 - a document which “had lots of links to Ukraine”, “written by someone in intel or with intel training”, a “20 page single spaced intel report” and the similar document said to have been received by CBS News: see Lync excerpt at top of this article.

However, unlike Strzok’s Lync messages, Steele attached major caveats to the SBU “dossier”. He said that the information was “written in an exaggerated way” and that the “source” (presumably the new PSS) had said that the SBU file had been “doctored ” so that “Kyiv is able to justify why it had Manafort under surveillance”:

There is no evidence that any of these caveats were communicated to congressional leadership.

Steele’s New PSS

Steele provided an interesting detail about his new PSS: that he “has reported on things with whichhe has directly been involved - in the actual room at the time”. An actual spy. In another article, I’ll review evidence on the identity of Steele’s new PSS.

Steele’s Chronology

While the content discussed by Steele is very similar to the content described in Strzok’s April Lync messages, Steele’s stated chronology is inconsistent with Steele having been the source of “bigger memo on Manafort based on access to information” in Manafort’s SBU file.

Steele said that the reporting received from his new PSS in March-April 2017 was about “Manafort’s involvement in the plot to elbow out Poroshenko” and about a “peace plan provided by a pro-Russian deputy … to Michael Cohen and Michael Flynn”⁴ - issues that are very different in content:

The peace plan referred to by Steele is (almost certainly) the peace plan for resolution of the civil war in Ukraine that Andrii Artemenko, then a Ukrainian member of parliament, had tried to convey to the new administration. Artemenko’s proposal was condemned by the ultra-nationalist Ukrainian government then at war with separatist Donbas region and smeared in a Feb 17, 2017 New York Times article. Two months later, the Kyiv regime stripped Artemenko of his Ukrainian citizenship, apparently without protest from US State Department. Artemenko was interviewed three times by Mueller. The second interview was leaked: see Politico, May 18, 2018; Vanity Fair, May 16, 2018; and heavily redacted 302 here.

This does not appear to be what Strzok was describing in his April Lync messages.

Further, Steele said in September 2017 that the information that appears to match what Strzok was describing had been “collected within the last few months”:

In other words, if Steele’s chronology is correct (not a given), Steele received the allegations about Manafort being a “Russian agent” a few months after Strzok had received a document similar to the one described by CBS News.

Conclusion

[Revised December 9, 2022]. The details are not easy to reconcile.

Most importantly, the document received by Strzok in March or April 2017 - a document which, according to Strzok, appeared to be similar to a “20 page single spaced intel report cited similarly to but better than [Steele’s]” that had been seen by CBS News - has been rigorously concealed by both Mueller investigation and FBI.

Both the “focus on Manafort” and “links to Ukraine” presage the most important priorities of the Mueller investigation, which almost immediately set aside the Steele dossier allegations about Carter Page as a Kremlin intermediary in favor of Ukraine SBU/Alexandra Chalupa conspiracy theories about Manafort as a supposed Russian agent.

My initial surmise had been that this document was likely the document provided to the FBI by Dan Jones in March/April 2017 and that Jones had received the document from Steele/Walsingham. But this doesn’t match Steele’s own chronology. And while Steele is anything but trustworthy, on reflection, I’m inclined to think that there’s an alternative explanation, that is consistent with Steele’s chronology.

In 2017, the FBI didn’t need Steele and Dan Jones as intermediaries to get Ukraine SBU documents on Manafort, since the Ukraine SBU was then under the thumb of the US Embassy in Kyiv and the FBI. Strzok and FBI had direct and more or less total access to SBU documents. I will review information on connections and potential connections between FBI and SBU in 2016 in the next post (especially in connection with the “Black Ledger”) but, in the meantime, I think that, for the March-April 2017 document on Manafort in Strzok’s possession, the base case should be that it was provided directly from SBU to FBI, and perhaps even commissioned by FBI.

1. Jones claimed credit for a length March 17, 2017 Reuters article that identified many Russian purchasers of Trump-branded (though mostly not Trump-owned) condos and houses in Florida. Waldman confirmed to Jones that he had talked to Mark Warner, Democrat ranking member of SSCI.

2. See ProPublica archive; 2020 see here; overview by Dunleavy, Washington Examiner, Nov 2021 here.)

3. (not totally redacted) 302 first published on Jan 19, 2021 by John Solomon link; Auten’s notes first published on Dec 10, 2021 by Grassley link; republished by Solomon link; contemporary Climate Audit commentary link). These Steele documents were Solomon’s meagre delivery on the promised foot-and-a-half of declassified documents. FBI was represented at the Steele de-briefing by (the ditzy) SIA Brian Auten and an SSA, almost certainly Amy Anderson

4. The peace plan referred to by Steele is (almost certainly) the peace plan for resolution of the civil war in Ukraine that Andrii Artemenko, then a Ukrainian member of parliament, had tried to convey to the new administration. Artemenko’s proposal was condemned by the ultra-nationalist Ukrainian government then at war with separatist Donbas region and smeared in a Feb 17, 2017 New York Times article. Two months later, the Kyiv regime stripped Artemenko of his Ukrainian citizenship, apparently without protest from US State Department. Artemenko was interviewed three times by Mueller. The second interview was leaked: see Politico, May 18, 2018; Vanity Fair, May 16, 2018; and heavily redacted 302 here.